CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb311dc71e45158a9a5264d3a1d4bcf09198dc4afeaf9fd240dea7a84da01af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 49c | 1,024$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.66 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 48c | 785.52$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.93 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…03d4backed Over | 51c | 292.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 51c | 217.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…3c99backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…9ee3backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…927cbacked Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Over | 50c | 156.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 406 | 39.4%160 W · 246 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…5acbbacked Under | 50c | 139.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30a…fcd8backed Over | 51c | 131.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Over | 50c | 100.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69d…7678backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…5573backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Over | 50c | 96.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 87.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 54c | 80.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…509bbacked Over | 53c | 52.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…f7b1backed Over | 50c | 46.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…01babacked Under | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…f7c2backed Under | 47c | 41.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2c…5e16backed Over | 53c | 41.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8662backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…d5ccbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…5ec5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…6dc3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…27f3backed Under | 50c | 37.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…ff50backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…be27backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.