Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9b2145105d0a1d1cf38a2012d889f91bb79937904ef76f547364828aa42d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 552.76$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 452.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 65c | 398.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccd…2cc2backed Yes | 33c | 368.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 231.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 48c | 204.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 185$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 151.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 118.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 102.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 54c | 86.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 82.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 65.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 53.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 45.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 45.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 45.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 43.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…695abacked Yes | 58c | 43.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 65c | 42.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed No | 73c | 41.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 38.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 33c | 37.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 36.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 36.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 36c | 31.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 30.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 46c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 63c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 54c | 18.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.