Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83df870d8fa775d9a5b38d77d7dd44892b95904999e0c17486448dbb6c6e2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,245$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.09 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 462.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.4 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 70c | 428.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 425.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.94 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 340.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 284.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.91 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 263.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 261.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 223.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 186.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 185$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 184.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 157.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 154.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 144.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 133.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 129.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 126.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 117.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 67c | 114.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 110.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 61c | 109.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 75c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 99.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 15c | 94.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 92.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 20c | 86.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 69.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked No | 32c | 62.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 67c | 59.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 56.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 44c | 53.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 50.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 48.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 47.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 45.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 45.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 42.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 42.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 41.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 39.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 37.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 36.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 38c | 34.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 58c | 31.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 68c | 31.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 28.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 26.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 24.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 24.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed No | 59c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 20.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 80c | 19.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…2358backed No | 65c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +243%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 67c | 18.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 15.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 70c | 14.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.