TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

WA-03 election: Glusenkamp Perez (D) vs. Kent (R)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Perezof Perez, Kent
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$281,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5431…47e1backed Kent53c28,187$15,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,076.781241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Kent20c25,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002650%13 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2800…9322backed Kent49c16,650$8,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,158.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1bd…9d26backed Perez51c16,650$8,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,158.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d34…d498backed Kent49c16,650$8,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,158.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6d…7ca2backed Perez51c16,650$8,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,158.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd25…793dbacked Kent49c16,650$8,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,158.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…f21fbacked Perez51c16,650$8,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,158.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e7…df6bbacked Perez80c15,430$12,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff92…f9b5backed Perez43c12,709$5,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,184.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Kent58c12,527$7,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,255.682429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…c923backed Perez51c11,160$5,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,434.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4486…cae0backed Kent49c11,160$5,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,434.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…a891backed Perez54c10,500$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b1b…6d43backed Kent46c10,500$4,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,830250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Perez50c6,731$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.451330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Perez80c4,998$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.633435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Perez44c3,495$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.551747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Perez42c3,400$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.636021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Perez45c3,166$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.357133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked Kent54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Perez50c2,942$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Perez45c2,328$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.032846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Perez79c2,160$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.981850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…6ab9backed Kent46c1,750$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ca8…10dbbacked Perez54c1,750$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed Perez43c1,480$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.461040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Kent48c1,254$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd975…c6d6backed Kent26c1,090$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+57%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Perez46c1,000$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5429533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Kent54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Perez44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Perez80c948$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Kent46c929.38$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.612250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Kent45c798.69$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.632147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed Kent55c750$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.51060%6 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+229.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Perez58c694.44$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.349129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Perez46c605.68$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Kent52c591.37$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.516740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Perez48c549.97$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3879…0df4backed Perez47c531.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed Perez46c523$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Perez40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Perez80c490.13$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Perez48c464.35$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed Perez43c460.86$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.092626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Perez58c460.67$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.911336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21da…baf5backed Perez43c457.38$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.71922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53c0…f74dbacked Perez48c449.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Kent56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Kent46c358.34$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f36…f6bebacked Kent64c329.8$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+134.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed Perez44c326.88$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Kent59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1773138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Kent49c290.81$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.511848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Perez42c257.59$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.835834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99ca…f9e6backed Perez48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…1a4dbacked Kent56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Kent51c245.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked Perez46c236.84$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.85771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c98…eef4backed Perez40c223$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…624bbacked Kent45c223$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Kent44c221.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.676251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5435…40a5backed Kent55c202.54$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…93fabacked Perez45c200.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…d797backed Kent40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969d…2de2backed Kent54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac5…b414backed Kent44c171.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf81c…a1edbacked Perez56c171.9$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad96…26b0backed Kent30c166.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Kent50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed Kent55c130$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb114…bdcbbacked Perez80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa380…175abacked Perez57c110$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d6…7974backed Perez54c102.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Perez51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4917355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75bc…acd1backed Perez50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa145…49e6backed Kent55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6b…7b67backed Kent56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9b…7febbacked Perez51c88.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.722744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd316…c8cfbacked Kent48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x739d…f0a1backed Perez50c83$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c87…4043backed Kent50c83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe438…33b3backed Perez54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bb…063bbacked Perez80c69.71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed Kent44c57.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick29cpaid+227.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Kent57c54.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.192231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7b…76f2backed Kent48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Perez46c51.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed Perez50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e7…0a64backed Kent50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Perez47c49.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4913455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd7…f7fabacked Kent54c48.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6e…d36abacked Perez47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f6…58d6backed Perez45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a78…866dbacked Kent56c42.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…3941backed Perez48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90db…46cbbacked Perez53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7826…191fbacked Kent50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d35…2138backed Kent60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.