Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfcc4bd60fa121a86b00d1c8999e5251bad3926963a4122891d91c214362f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.95 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,141$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed Under | 80c | 830$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 712.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 34c | 666$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 67c | 465.19$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe81a…1643backed Under | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 25c | 363.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 34c | 293.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Under | 65c | 279.12$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 225.86$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 43c | 139.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…1fc2backed Under | 71c | 82.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Over | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Under | 74c | 53.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 32c | 49.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 41c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.