Serie A · resolved market
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501dc39472947f1e78aff5f5612f2206f70922a31adeaccc11caef046447db77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SSC Napoliof SSC Napoli, SS Lazio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SSC Napoli | 24c | 8,064$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,151.02 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SS Lazio | 59c | 5,743$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.65 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed SS Lazio | 60c | 2,091$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked SSC Napoli | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.99 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed SSC Napoli | 18c | 499.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed SSC Napoli | 12c | 481.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.72 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +275.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked SSC Napoli | 20c | 457.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.89 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed SSC Napoli | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed SSC Napoli | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SS Lazio | 28c | 223.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…446bbacked SSC Napoli | 20c | 205.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed SSC Napoli | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed SSC Napoli | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked SS Lazio | 59c | 135.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked SS Lazio | 33c | 132.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SS Lazio | 56c | 92.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…6602backed SSC Napoli | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked SSC Napoli | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed SS Lazio | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed SS Lazio | 29c | 49.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed SS Lazio | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked SSC Napoli | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed SSC Napoli | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed SSC Napoli | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed SS Lazio | 80c | 24.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed SSC Napoli | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)this page
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.