Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec03109be229d6e4706229961834254b4c8ca4529b54481fa2e634b074779ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 7,053$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.39 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 64c | 2,228$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 37c | 1,337$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.53 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed Under | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…c146backed Over | 60c | 945.27$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 776.26$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.69 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Under | 37c | 420.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 26c | 405$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 337.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 65c | 269.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 223.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 64c | 195.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 62c | 184.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 22c | 142$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 65c | 101.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 37c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Over | 64c | 61.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…a0d2backed Over | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 65c | 31.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 64c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…0bdfbacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 63c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.