Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec1f975308ef60b81e401a964e4096b844b8ef7bbf838948f9bb0ed23e5373c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 79c | 489.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 39c | 327.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 76c | 323.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 54c | 322.27$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 225.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 11c | 222.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 220.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 193.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 164.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 152.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 140.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 133.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 128.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 128.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 24c | 123.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 29c | 113.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…f3c1backed Yes | 46c | 110.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 60c | 110.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 109.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 88.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 40c | 73.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 39c | 67.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 65.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 62.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 53.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 51.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 47.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 42.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 40.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 53c | 39.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 45c | 38.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 37.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 35.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 31.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 45c | 29.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…4441backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 64c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.