Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4446ce3715d354bb8196b315cc7daf33abfb818baca027577149737f1c8572e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 889.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.86 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 509.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 302.39$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 294.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 35c | 293.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 166.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 139.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 138$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 133$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 131.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 130.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 51c | 128$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 56c | 124.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 120.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 118.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 98.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 40c | 88.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 75.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 73c | 74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 71.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 63.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 58.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 19c | 58.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 56.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 56.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 51.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 62c | 50.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 47c | 38.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 44c | 38.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 36c | 35.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 29.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 71c | 26.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 58c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 47c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.