Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec835d3b36d55da99fae3a4579ab9faaddc60d32f4d77025fe2140c49ada4d6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bd7…4b8ebacked No | 0c | 11,260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed No | 3c | 1,121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 780.34$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 69c | 672.47$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 383.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 381.53$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 61c | 331.35$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 314.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 38c | 289.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.95 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 275.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 62c | 267.68$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 266.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 41c | 253.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 228.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 224.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 48c | 223.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 46c | 216.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 40c | 185.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 174.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 160.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 46c | 150.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 141.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 131.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 29c | 130.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 128.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 20c | 125.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 125.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 23c | 123.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 117$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 26c | 113.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 45c | 111.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…1787backed Yes | 56c | 107.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…dcd6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 41c | 97.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 96.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 96.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 49c | 89.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 79.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 28c | 79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 78.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 78.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 41c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 74c | 67.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 67.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…8fc5backed Yes | 27c | 66.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 65.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 59.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 31c | 58.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 38c | 55.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 24c | 55.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 34c | 52.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 51.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 45c | 50.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 44c | 47.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 35c | 46.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 66c | 44.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 41.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 48c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 38.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 39c | 36.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 36c | 36.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…aa42backed No | 66c | 35.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 37c | 35.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 59c | 33.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…3004backed Yes | 68c | 33.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 55c | 32.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…6d8cbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 41c | 30.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 29.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 51c | 29.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…615dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.