Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ceef41935908b41f5d952d9d119b45c95229e058afaca282080ad6cf2bb10f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,742 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,647$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 1,162$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…899ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 777.22$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…3004backed Yes | 4c | 622.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…14f5backed Yes | 2c | 470.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 29c | 435.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 430.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 70c | 430.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 398.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 51c | 372.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 362.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 342.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 336.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 44c | 257.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 249.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 241.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 239.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 217.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 216.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 175.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…f7eebacked Yes | 47c | 164.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 158.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 40c | 137.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 117$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 19c | 105.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…8fc5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…5d4dbacked Yes | 49c | 91.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 36c | 90.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 37c | 86.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 85.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 83.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 34c | 83.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 50c | 81.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…19f8backed Yes | 37c | 81.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 17c | 76.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…1787backed Yes | 47c | 73.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 61.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 55.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 36c | 55.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 38c | 54.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 37c | 53.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 48c | 51.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 60c | 50.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 51c | 50.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 49.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 77c | 45.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 43.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 33c | 42.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 42.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…7ce7backed Yes | 44c | 41.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 37c | 40.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 63c | 36.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 57c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 44c | 33.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 38c | 31.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 64c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 64c | 31.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 29.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 59c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…613bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 46c | 21.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 60c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 72c | 19.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.