TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Texas State Bobcats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas State Bobcatsof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Texas State Bobcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers50c4,946$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.9749345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Texas State Bobcats52c4,294$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.8637441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers48c3,943$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.774738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texas State Bobcats47c3,854$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.515,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Texas State Bobcats69c3,787$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.1946446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c3,516$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.762,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers31c2,336$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.931,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas State Bobcats69c1,783$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.921,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Texas State Bobcats30c1,414$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.241,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Appalachian State Mountaineers59c1,169$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.5734943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers61c1,081$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.414,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c1,038$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.874,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Texas State Bobcats49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51027947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Texas State Bobcats35c984.69$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.819745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Texas State Bobcats52c817.2$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.321,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Texas State Bobcats29c794.19$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.5216054.4%87 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Texas State Bobcats51c664.31$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.041,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Appalachian State Mountaineers51c660.84$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0379448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Texas State Bobcats36c631.2$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.642,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Texas State Bobcats51c588.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.291,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Texas State Bobcats50c496.92$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4718349.2%90 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Texas State Bobcats50c410.91$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.271,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Texas State Bobcats53c374.07$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8116253.1%86 W · 76 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Texas State Bobcats51c350.4$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1139742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers30c339.67$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.691,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Texas State Bobcats45c330.45$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.758757.5%50 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c304.67$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.692268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Texas State Bobcats50c297.34$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.732,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Appalachian State Mountaineers48c270.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13021937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers48c246.42$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0881528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Appalachian State Mountaineers66c225.22$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6472248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Appalachian State Mountaineers57c200.11$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.793,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Appalachian State Mountaineers50c198.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.131,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Texas State Bobcats50c198.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.138353%44 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Texas State Bobcats50c198.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.136150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers50c198.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.131,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers62c194.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.670349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Appalachian State Mountaineers51c194.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1311844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas State Bobcats43c186.88$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.223,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Texas State Bobcats50c179.82$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9150745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Texas State Bobcats70c177.89$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers56c173.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0377142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Appalachian State Mountaineers51c165.21$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2611257.1%64 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Appalachian State Mountaineers62c154.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Appalachian State Mountaineers49c150.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.355052%26 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Texas State Bobcats65c150.25$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.082,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Texas State Bobcats34c130.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.884221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Texas State Bobcats64c120.02$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2122157.9%128 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Texas State Bobcats54c115.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7421850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers51c112.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.499554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Appalachian State Mountaineers47c104.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.891,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2344…3dbebacked Appalachian State Mountaineers48c102.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.562755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Texas State Bobcats49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.044,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Appalachian State Mountaineers70c99.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.882,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Texas State Bobcats50c99.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5614546.9%68 W · 77 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers50c99.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5683350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Appalachian State Mountaineers50c97.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.629347.3%44 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6e…b1a7backed Texas State Bobcats53c92.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3314448.6%70 W · 74 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Texas State Bobcats34c92.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas State Bobcats71c81.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3884854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Texas State Bobcats52c76.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3243053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers65c72.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.211,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fd…d641backed Texas State Bobcats56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.437663.2%48 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas State Bobcats46c69.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.431,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas State Bobcats30c65.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.881,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas State Bobcats52c60.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.233,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Appalachian State Mountaineers47c60.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2314244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Appalachian State Mountaineers31c57.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6518439.1%72 W · 112 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Appalachian State Mountaineers49c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5819860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers51c53.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.317945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Appalachian State Mountaineers48c53.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4515551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Appalachian State Mountaineers66c45.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.762556%14 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Appalachian State Mountaineers50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Texas State Bobcats33c39.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.625239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x140f…0b2ebacked Texas State Bobcats50c39.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.833855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Texas State Bobcats51c38.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0493447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Appalachian State Mountaineers67c38.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6624951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ce7…7cfabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers49c33.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.514757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Appalachian State Mountaineers61c33.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4970936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Appalachian State Mountaineers45c33.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8715246.7%71 W · 81 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Appalachian State Mountaineers48c31.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3492246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers51c29.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2334952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Appalachian State Mountaineers67c28.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Texas State Bobcats51c27.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6133445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Texas State Bobcats50c24.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.398248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Appalachian State Mountaineers51c23.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98952.8%47 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers50c21.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.920834.6%72 W · 136 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.