College Football · resolved market
Missouri State vs. Liberty
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecc0e46c02ffe861e0380b9bbdc30be67f69a3a66e03d55f503be580a9bbc707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri Stateof Missouri State, Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liberty | 80c | 9,183$7,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,321.7 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Missouri State | 28c | 6,394$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,602.44 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Missouri State | 22c | 4,845$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,788.44 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Liberty | 73c | 4,531$3,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.3 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Missouri State | 19c | 4,158$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.37 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Missouri State | 14c | 4,149$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,559.85 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Missouri State | 28c | 4,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty | 72c | 3,484$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.45 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Missouri State | 28c | 2,121$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.14 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Missouri State | 17c | 1,979$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.57 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Missouri State | 27c | 1,935$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.77 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Missouri State | 42c | 1,920$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.44 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Missouri State | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Missouri State | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…52c1backed Missouri State | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db0…ece3backed Liberty | 73c | 1,071$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Liberty | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liberty | 72c | 963.96$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.43 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Missouri State | 40c | 915.84$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.45 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Missouri State | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Missouri State | 24c | 692.23$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.1 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Liberty | 74c | 666.36$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.03 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Missouri State | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Missouri State | 27c | 376$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.48 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Missouri State | 27c | 310$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.3 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Liberty | 75c | 275.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Missouri State | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Missouri State | 30c | 180.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Missouri State | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liberty | 70c | 165.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Missouri State | 27c | 156.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…ace3backed Liberty | 76c | 148.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Missouri State | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Liberty | 72c | 139.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Missouri State | 28c | 138.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Liberty | 72c | 138.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Missouri State | 17c | 138.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Liberty | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Liberty | 75c | 124.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Liberty | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Missouri State | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Missouri State | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Missouri State | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Missouri State | 12c | 91.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Missouri State | 29c | 88.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Missouri State | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Liberty | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Missouri State | 17c | 76.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Missouri State | 28c | 72.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Liberty | 70c | 69.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Liberty | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…969cbacked Liberty | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Missouri State | 28c | 50.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Missouri State | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa843…8f3fbacked Missouri State | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Missouri State | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Liberty | 72c | 40.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Liberty | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Liberty | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Liberty | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…c769backed Liberty | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Liberty | 77c | 24.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b17abacked Liberty | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Liberty | 73c | 17.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…6c33backed Liberty | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Missouri State vs. Libertythis page
- O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Liberty (-7.5)Missouri State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.