NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf2dad38b4506d332b0e184db952317c900710f2c873976ca13b8b9fc56aa43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 73,315$35,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,211.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 52c | 72,313$37,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,710 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 32,359$15,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,686.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 15,908$8,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,211.97 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 50c | 5,913$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.5 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…a380backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 3,021$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.82 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 50c | 1,003$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.25 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 785.57$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 51c | 490.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 441.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 50c | 400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 385.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…0121backed Over | 52c | 228.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 122.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 16c | 75.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Under | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…17abbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked Under | 52c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5this page
- Bulls vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.