Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecfe762bd4507a9623194f6700532f3d39eccb5c8f0e797d2f86bc119acad305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 69c | 1,295$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.25 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 798.59$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 385.21$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 69c | 254.81$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 223.61$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 207.33$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 174$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 157.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 139.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 124.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 113.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 112.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 98.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed No | 69c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 70c | 81.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 35c | 80.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 80.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 78.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 71.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 71.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 70.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 68.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 66.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 65.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 74c | 64.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 51.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 50.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 43.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 41.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 41.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 29c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 70c | 37.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 37.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 35.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 33c | 33.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 32.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 32.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 68c | 16.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.