Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7799515f6b97e711ce5b132167ca648ef6d219383b9f331424f16b6f9bf0481c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 63c | 577.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 510.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 52c | 292.69$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 258.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 28c | 227.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 178.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 154.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 12c | 154.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 55c | 140.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 65c | 139.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 138.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 15c | 138.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 44c | 129$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 127$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 54c | 125.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 116.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 111.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 80c | 100.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 47c | 98.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 77.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 73.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 67.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 63c | 66.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 59.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 47c | 57.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 54.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 52.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 50c | 52.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 51.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 49.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…569ebacked Yes | 52c | 49.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 48.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 47c | 41.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 38.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 37.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 37.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 36.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 32.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 30.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 43c | 25.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 45c | 25.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 46c | 24.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 49c | 24.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 50c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 21.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 51c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 18.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 68c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.