Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1cd923b23ff567bc52f623e840a268e74cf9fd4a427443b64c6721b99b7709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,324$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 396$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 344.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 43c | 327.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 312.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 48c | 306.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 28c | 288.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 252.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 8c | 245.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 244.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 192.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 190.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 39c | 183.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 181$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 177.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 58c | 177.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 153.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 140.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 119.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 59c | 107.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 100.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 16c | 86.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 82.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 81.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 78.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 77.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 69.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 65c | 58.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 52c | 55.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 68c | 52.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 39c | 45.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 43.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 38.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 37.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 63c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 27.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…1739backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 69c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 15.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.