TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Execrationof Execration, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Carstensz38c21,621$8,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,149.8717948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b7…fdf1backed Execration65c9,741$6,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz32c3,428$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.411,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Carstensz35c3,294$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15319547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Execration63c3,161$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.74946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration70c2,500$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.9886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Execration63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74031055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Execration60c1,716$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.741,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Execration64c1,557$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.463951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Carstensz17c1,468$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Execration73c1,307$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.196741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Execration58c1,270$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.982,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Execration78c1,121$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.767964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Execration65c1,071$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.3934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Carstensz35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Execration66c1,000$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34458356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz32c895.58$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.382,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Carstensz24c874.97$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Carstensz12c796.52$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.021,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Execration65c764.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5548053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Carstensz43c697.27$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30215150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Execration69c596.33$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3312253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Execration66c557.01$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3833867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Execration74c512.16$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3453758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Execration60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Execration60c384.46$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8834041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Carstensz30c383.86$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11716139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Execration61c369$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6817443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Execration71c333.22$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.151,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Execration60c295.88$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.945545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93aa…6ac0backed Carstensz34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Execration60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10029550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Execration58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10540442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Execration61c234.36$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.418645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Carstensz44c227.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Execration64c227.19$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.871,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Carstensz48c207.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Carstensz37c178.36$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.998469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Carstensz37c173.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6539042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz29c165.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Execration62c164.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9415342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Carstensz36c162.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0130146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Execration71c160.43$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1489238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Execration65c159.55$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8457455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Carstensz17c153$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8156945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz46c151.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Execration60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.562841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Execration60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7160…cce2backed Carstensz34c135.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.742245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Execration60c133.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3337549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Carstensz28c130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.420820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Execration59c125$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5130844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked Execration60c123$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.413852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc08d…1e00backed Carstensz35c121.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.684148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Execration73c118$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.066271%44 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Carstensz39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3915843%68 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Execration65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed Carstensz35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Execration63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Execration68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Execration54c88.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.932334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Carstensz38c83.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.641,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Carstensz35c80.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3238244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed Execration65c78.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.635541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Carstensz39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6f…8063backed Carstensz31c76.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.874928.6%14 W · 35 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Carstensz41c73.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.348056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6b…a307backed Carstensz34c64.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228940.4%36 W · 53 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Carstensz36c64.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Carstensz33c59.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7765647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Execration72c52.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.653538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked Carstensz40c52.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8511753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Execration69c51.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9620030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9d4…a3d5backed Execration65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.522954.6%125 W · 104 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b32…5146backed Carstensz34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1725356.5%143 W · 110 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Execration71c47.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9381345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Execration60c47.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239c…f7c2backed Carstensz35c42.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Execration62c39.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.163964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Execration55c39.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7310933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Execration51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2254648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Execration57c32.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1914848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Execration66c30.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3838759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Execration66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.230643.5%133 W · 173 L-22.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed Carstensz55c29.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3716558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Execration66c29.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0421465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed Execration66c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.848053.8%43 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Execration67c25.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3725248.8%123 W · 129 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Execration61c24.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.485149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd932…af3cbacked Execration64c23.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.384854.2%26 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Execration68c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.862458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Execration64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6319449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.