TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Execrationof Execration, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1b7…fdf1backed Carstensz15c15,269$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Carstensz44c5,500$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Carstensz46c5,491$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.0480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz21c4,142$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.451,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Carstensz17c2,759$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Execration53c2,563$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.1395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Execration52c2,314$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.644946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Execration61c2,284$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.821,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Carstensz38c1,843$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.9131248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Carstensz48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9919338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Carstensz31c1,279$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Execration54c1,217$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.242,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Execration58c1,065$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.0943067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Carstensz39c1,033$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.869344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed Carstensz40c1,008$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Execration63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37015050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Carstensz3c950$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Execration61c849.14$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.1631865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Carstensz36c831.93$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4925150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration57c792.75$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.5586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Execration63c791.87$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.8711656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Execration56c729$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.5234561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Execration77c668.81$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0856945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Carstensz46c645.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6541455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Execration65c632.3$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Execration72c603.18$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9858746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Execration75c602.06$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5430146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Carstensz49c598.61$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed Carstensz43c586.39$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Carstensz43c569.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.132441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0452…843cbacked Execration77c567.74$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.963253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Execration76c559.15$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Execration70c535.68$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.73658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Execration67c534.98$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.282,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Carstensz25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12518143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Carstensz39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Carstensz38c497.62$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.129243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Execration80c466.52$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6353758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Execration61c447.69$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.691,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Execration65c447.32$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.575545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Carstensz28c394.51$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3848053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Carstensz48c388.89$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.417361.6%45 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Execration66c359.83$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Execration63c357$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.161,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Execration60c343.14$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.731,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081f…9fcdbacked Carstensz38c332$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.24825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Carstensz36c271.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9816139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz39c258.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Execration57c256$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.084351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Execration53c250.94$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9440442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Execration52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12029550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Execration77c250$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Carstensz48c249.18$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7511758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Carstensz47c248.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.922558.2%131 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Execration72c243.06$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0615069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2842…e81bbacked Execration62c223.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.862040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Execration72c202.72$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.581,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Execration57c202$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8616553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Execration65c190.11$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Execration64c187.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9919440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Execration63c183$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2417443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x381d…f5dabacked Execration79c164.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Execration70c163.5$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9820030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Execration57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.54057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb085…7b10backed Carstensz48c146.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.143756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Execration51c137.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Execration62c133.87$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.878056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Carstensz26c125.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Execration60c125.01$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5430844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7160…cce2backed Carstensz38c121.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.042245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Execration65c119.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8334041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Execration63c117.66$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5810933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Execration77c115.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.826981.2%56 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Carstensz43c114.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Execration75c114.85$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.618469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed Execration72c108.6$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.375541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91d…7541backed Carstensz48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Carstensz27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2717340.5%70 W · 103 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Execration61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked Execration62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.153852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Execration52c99.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Carstensz19c91.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1341632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Execration55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Execration56c90.84$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.641,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc08d…1e00backed Execration61c79.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.954148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Carstensz39c74.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1293546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4994…3e36backed Carstensz33c73.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.649964.6%64 W · 35 L+19.9wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+67.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Carstensz45c73.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0338244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Execration63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.941864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c10…5d44backed Execration57c69.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Execration67c57.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1253538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Execration63c52.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6215342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a5…2cbdbacked Execration61c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.282634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Carstensz25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.559254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Execration57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.353342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked Carstensz50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked Execration53c44.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.932240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Execration72c37.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.363964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2756…e8c7backed Carstensz46c36.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1720661.7%127 W · 79 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Execration56c35.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7321344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.