Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf522e02571ab645b380762597bf103e025fd1a2a592f0093acc7b077998847

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Execrationof Execration, Carstensz
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,258 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x824b…8386backed Carstensz	39c	1,792$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	158	48.1%76 W · 82 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Execration	63c	1,577$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577	203	67%136 W · 67 L	+14.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Carstensz	37c	1,500$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.99	810	29.4%238 W · 572 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Execration	63c	1,083$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.9	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Carstensz	15c	1,064$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.66	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Execration	63c	687.99$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.3	47	34%16 W · 31 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Execration	64c	682.98$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.7	176	48.3%85 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Carstensz	39c	579.9$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.55	208	27.9%58 W · 150 L	-11.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz	25c	563.97$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	577	35%202 W · 375 L	-14.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Carstensz	36c	555.56$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	106	37.7%40 W · 66 L	-9.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz	33c	519.93$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.51	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Execration	63c	500$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185	171	33.9%58 W · 113 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Carstensz	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1413…184abacked Carstensz	22c	499.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Execration	65c	478.92$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.75	589	43%253 W · 336 L	-25.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…477dbacked Carstensz	43c	464.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Carstensz	38c	447.63$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.09	614	49.5%304 W · 310 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Carstensz	35c	406.91$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.35	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Carstensz	35c	400$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081f…9fcdbacked Carstensz	15c	393.64$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.05	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Carstensz	37c	385$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz	16c	292.39$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.07	587	46.5%273 W · 314 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Execration	63c	282.16$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.4	264	45.1%119 W · 145 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…7ecfbacked Carstensz	37c	269.3$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.87	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Carstensz	18c	266.67$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	93	22.6%21 W · 72 L	-7.1wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93aa…6ac0backed Carstensz	38c	255.75$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.75	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Execration	75c	253.45$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.05	438	60.5%265 W · 173 L	+44.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Carstensz	40c	250.05$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.32	268	43.7%117 W · 151 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Execration	64c	242$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.15	301	46.2%139 W · 162 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed Carstensz	45c	224.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz	14c	214.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	785	16.6%130 W · 655 L	-135.4wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Carstensz	8c	210.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	962	45.5%438 W · 524 L	+22.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Execration	73c	200.63$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.99	892	38.1%340 W · 552 L	-42.7wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Carstensz	37c	200$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	142	59.9%85 W · 57 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Execration	62c	200$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	700	52.3%366 W · 334 L	+47.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Execration	69c	196.7$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.1	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Execration	57c	194.77$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.45	691	32.6%225 W · 466 L	-26.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Carstensz	35c	179.03$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	233	42.9%100 W · 133 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Execration	57c	152$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	899	38%342 W · 557 L	-45.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Carstensz	38c	149.8$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	137	31.4%43 W · 94 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Execration	77c	143.61$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.93	200	30.5%61 W · 139 L	-14.6wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Execration	62c	137.1$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.1	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Carstensz	37c	136.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abe…f19fbacked Execration	63c	130.31$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.21	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Carstensz	38c	120.12$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	253	48.6%123 W · 130 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Carstensz	36c	118.04$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.04	134	35.8%48 W · 86 L	-9.5wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Execration	60c	109$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.17	683	45.8%313 W · 370 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6b…a307backed Carstensz	23c	108.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Carstensz	15c	107.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Execration	63c	105.29$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.96	935	46.4%434 W · 501 L	-15.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17d…2134backed Execration	63c	103.92$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.45	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.17per pick	63cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Carstensz	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	537	58.8%316 W · 221 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Execration	72c	99.61$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.44	194	40.7%79 W · 115 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Execration	71c	95$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.74	535	38.5%206 W · 329 L	-26.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Execration	63c	93.48$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	181	52.5%95 W · 86 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x974b…7c8fbacked Execration	63c	92.08$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…755fbacked Execration	61c	85.71$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.81	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Execration	72c	85.5$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.27	308	44.8%138 W · 170 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Carstensz	38c	81.58$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	225	38.7%87 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad6…c1c4backed Carstensz	36c	80$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	93	26.9%25 W · 68 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Execration	64c	80$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	441	49.4%218 W · 223 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Execration	72c	69.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.75	813	45.1%367 W · 446 L	-26.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91aa…c94abacked Carstensz	37c	64.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Execration	64c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.55	215	40.9%88 W · 127 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b4e…417cbacked Carstensz	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Execration	56c	53.13$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	186	52.2%97 W · 89 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Execration	58c	51.86$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.86	213	44.1%94 W · 119 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Execration	63c	49.06$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	63cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Carstensz	37c	46.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1f…825fbacked Carstensz	29c	41.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e0…d8b8backed Carstensz	41c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2661…6c28backed Carstensz	30c	36.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Execration	65c	32$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.19	207	40.1%83 W · 124 L	-14.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Execration	70c	28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	414	55.6%230 W · 184 L	+41.4wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbbec…e3f9backed Execration	64c	27.77$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.97	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Execration	61c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Execration	73c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4c…c8c6backed Execration	63c	23.81$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.81	80	50%40 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b86…5552backed Execration	63c	20.25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.49	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	-5.9wins	-0.12per pick	69cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x239c…f7c2backed Execration	63c	18.31$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.78	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Execration	63c	17.78$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.58	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Execration	70c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.84	1,120	36.1%404 W · 716 L	-39.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Execration won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event