Movies · resolved market
Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 2.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4546f4c3e87d73b2994ae53a788a684251b1bedb108593589e0babbbe36a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 15c | 4,979$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.81 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 1c | 3,188$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 13c | 773.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…0a04backed Yes | 79c | 764$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 20c | 643$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 36c | 424.79$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 406.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed No | 4c | 311$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed No | 4c | 310$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 74c | 271.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Yes | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 171.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 27c | 152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 10c | 118.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 108.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 2.5m?this page
- Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 1.5m and 2m?No won
- Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 1m and 1.5m?No won
- Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 1m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.