TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BET-M 33of BET-M 33, SPARTA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9d6…730abacked SPARTA73c17,699$12,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,965.479565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed SPARTA68c13,151$8,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,942.4817951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BET-M 3323c9,612$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,435.195,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed BET-M 3332c7,959$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,413.8484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked SPARTA49c6,729$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.1644957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked SPARTA66c4,448$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.124768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked SPARTA69c3,500$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.985867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked BET-M 3359c3,217$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked BET-M 3351c3,039$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.5619236.5%70 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed BET-M 3332c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0402,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked BET-M 3340c2,773$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.543,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked BET-M 3341c2,762$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.0922241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked BET-M 3330c2,750$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.9716240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked BET-M 3331c2,322$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.3894645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed SPARTA66c2,109$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4007152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BET-M 3336c2,016$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.032,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed SPARTA59c1,717$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.5869445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SPARTA70c1,711$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.332,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18de…7c92backed SPARTA68c1,615$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.361070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed BET-M 3331c1,469$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.321,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed BET-M 3344c1,468$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.3565546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked BET-M 3351c1,410$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.951,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BET-M 3330c1,331$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.145,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed BET-M 3344c1,292$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.8737057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed SPARTA48c1,278$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.5423356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x581c…a595backed BET-M 3334c1,125$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.622441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BET-M 3331c1,040$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.666446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed SPARTA48c1,017$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.541,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed BET-M 3334c985.65$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.3516036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb454…a98cbacked BET-M 3340c962.86$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.715536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked SPARTA53c778.64$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.671,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BET-M 3332c750$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BET-M 3348c743.66$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.997,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SPARTA49c693.08$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.393,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked SPARTA54c681.46$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.221,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked SPARTA69c668$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.9227940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed BET-M 3332c636.19$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.6164854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked SPARTA70c632.61$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.561,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked BET-M 3332c626.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.898324.1%20 W · 63 L-11.7wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed BET-M 3333c588.09$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.888724.1%21 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked BET-M 3341c554$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.2220936.4%76 W · 133 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SPARTA50c536.82$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.072,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BET-M 3331c518.84$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.472,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked BET-M 3346c511.3$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.116248.1%78 W · 84 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0c…5ad0backed BET-M 3363c488.36$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2110643.4%46 W · 60 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed BET-M 3354c484$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.566446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f33…55e6backed SPARTA79c482.56$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd68…0f6bbacked SPARTA61c482.34$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.692245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed BET-M 3332c482.27$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.931,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed SPARTA43c469.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.931749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed SPARTA45c446.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed BET-M 3323c442.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2814439.6%57 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7876…a162backed SPARTA62c408.33$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed BET-M 3330c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28025845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked SPARTA42c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17058254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed BET-M 3355c382.15$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1283543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed BET-M 3339c381.16$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1419953.8%107 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed SPARTA62c379$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3735848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked SPARTA37c370.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1372532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed SPARTA66c367$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8645465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68d…1f62backed SPARTA70c366.11$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2825446.1%117 W · 137 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked SPARTA69c360.72$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015047.3%71 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BET-M 3352c357.26$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.924,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked SPARTA71c349.04$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.823557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed SPARTA52c339.72$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.382,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked SPARTA50c336.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5734542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed SPARTA44c335$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.635153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed BET-M 3332c326.28$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8748240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed BET-M 3346c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0932443.5%141 W · 183 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e89…2e8ebacked SPARTA63c317.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006960.9%42 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed BET-M 3348c316.44$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4540264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed SPARTA68c313$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8474054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e8…faaebacked BET-M 3365c309.49$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2815346.4%71 W · 82 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked BET-M 3333c309.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.857834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed SPARTA46c307.94$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.612,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked SPARTA50c301$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.57850%39 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed BET-M 3332c300.2$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1447054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked BET-M 3357c293.01$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.515337.3%57 W · 96 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked BET-M 3331c290.63$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.631440.1%126 W · 188 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked SPARTA69c290.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3413371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed SPARTA69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked BET-M 3332c287$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4749536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked SPARTA49c266$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.562,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked SPARTA49c266$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.611,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed BET-M 3337c263.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3851755.9%289 W · 228 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f1…35cbbacked BET-M 3337c258.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BET-M 3335c254.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.24,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed BET-M 3329c252.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3812937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed BET-M 3328c252.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1527438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed BET-M 3330c249.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17420047.5%95 W · 105 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed SPARTA69c239.01$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.927653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed BET-M 3346c237.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3944244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed SPARTA32c237$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8738131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SPARTA52c236$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.855,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed BET-M 3372c235$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.122,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed SPARTA51c235$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.168659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6691…5a83backed SPARTA69c233.91$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.44841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…9116backed SPARTA59c213.87$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.143852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed SPARTA47c213.53$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2388330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed SPARTA63c203.72$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6961054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.