Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd02d20be08ebbdbbd61f9bcca655d5d4277c027ce0203004c53c5b7075382f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 1,788$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,311$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 17c | 1,276$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 426.03$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 351.78$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 66c | 342.7$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 285.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 278.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 77c | 266.87$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.62 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 238.03$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 226.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 74c | 207.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 34c | 207.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 201.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 76c | 182.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 181.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 30c | 179.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 144$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 135.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 119.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 16c | 115.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 115.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 114.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 107.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 105.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 40c | 94.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 80c | 89.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 52c | 80.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 53c | 70.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 58.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 57.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 69c | 56.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 24c | 51.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 42.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 39.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 38.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 67c | 34.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 74c | 28.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…02a0backed Yes | 76c | 27.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 26.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910f…94c1backed No | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 22.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 79c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.