Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe442356f5ed1f643b21ec5466cb66861c95875879868d9aa87263311e4155e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 493.96$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 51c | 425.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.02 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 379.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 14c | 281.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 279.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 216$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 206$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 191.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 189.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 33c | 164.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 43c | 151$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 48c | 140.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 139.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 127.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 118.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 110.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 104.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 93.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 27c | 84.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 83.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 37c | 80.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 74.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 66.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 66.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 62.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 42c | 59.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 58c | 58.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 57.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 56.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 55.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 54.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 41c | 53.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 42c | 52.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 51.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 50.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 58c | 47.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 43.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 74c | 43.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 43.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 42c | 41.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 41.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked No | 77c | 37.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 33.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 29.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 43c | 26.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 26.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 26.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 24.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…79a9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 60c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.