Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b5e267aa430736a55b12b9c7ea7c381e029e7bbaf5d37411f62fea8ad259df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 29c | 412.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 397.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 365.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 262.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 222.61$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 206$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 204.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 183.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 137.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 122.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 121.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 107.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 32c | 95.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 89.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 73c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 25c | 83.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 82.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…74f4backed Yes | 26c | 77.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 76.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 72.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 71.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 69.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 65.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 57.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 56.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 50.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 21c | 50.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 42.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 40.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e5f1backed Yes | 29c | 37.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 74c | 28.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 25.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 77c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 80c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.