TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nevada Wolf Packof Nevada Wolf Pack, San Jose State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$739,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$739,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $739,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Nevada Wolf Pack48c679,057$328,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350,434.0735945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked San Jose State Spartans52c250,000$130,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,00089645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked San Jose State Spartans51c150,000$76,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,5009050%45 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed San Jose State Spartans52c111,697$58,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,082.59860.2%59 W · 39 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked San Jose State Spartans52c89,964$46,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,379.4813649.3%67 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed San Jose State Spartans51c65,209$33,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,256.6369142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7caf…058bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack48c43,976$21,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,659.342646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked San Jose State Spartans51c32,500$16,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,70090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed San Jose State Spartans51c20,000$10,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2808946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Nevada Wolf Pack48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,68010441.3%43 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Jose State Spartans52c5,227$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,71812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed San Jose State Spartans51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53017050.6%86 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked San Jose State Spartans51c1,831$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.0421754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c1,725$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.756144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked San Jose State Spartans52c1,335$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.21,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c1,322$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.456445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed San Jose State Spartans52c1,111$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.618747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked San Jose State Spartans52c1,030$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.055,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8025…c036backed San Jose State Spartans53c705.62$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.441926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed San Jose State Spartans52c682.96$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1421347.9%102 W · 111 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x811e…8733backed San Jose State Spartans53c500$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.993053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cc…535abacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c406.15$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.141643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Nevada Wolf Pack49c396.73$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.332948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked San Jose State Spartans52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked San Jose State Spartans53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15948855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nevada Wolf Pack47c287.06$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.144,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nevada Wolf Pack48c270.66$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.95,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed San Jose State Spartans52c208$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c198.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.164344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7cf…058dbacked San Jose State Spartans53c180$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61520%3 W · 12 L-4.6wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Nevada Wolf Pack49c176.32$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.929440.4%38 W · 56 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c136.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4617661.4%108 W · 68 L+17.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed San Jose State Spartans51c124.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2912341.5%51 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed San Jose State Spartans52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659f…220cbacked San Jose State Spartans52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked San Jose State Spartans55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5515156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Nevada Wolf Pack45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5519050.5%96 W · 94 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed San Jose State Spartans53c87.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.982147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76e…e4f0backed San Jose State Spartans53c82.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed San Jose State Spartans42c78.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2918046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed San Jose State Spartans51c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2735050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8155…eb2cbacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c76.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.013348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked San Jose State Spartans52c67.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.967251.4%37 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bf…0f9bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack49c66.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.714146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Nevada Wolf Pack49c63.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47450%37 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked San Jose State Spartans52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307846.2%36 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed San Jose State Spartans52c54.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4819653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Nevada Wolf Pack49c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.528547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed San Jose State Spartans53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252075%15 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ea3…9439backed San Jose State Spartans53c45.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d6…a56abacked Nevada Wolf Pack48c41.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.242544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Nevada Wolf Pack46c32.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.636248.6%176 W · 186 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed San Jose State Spartans52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137252.8%38 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb8…846ebacked San Jose State Spartans52c21.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.