Dota2 · resolved market
PlayTime to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee772ee6e63ab4ccbc413be21b50320be48645662e14845cbe0b90d4eac61bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,110$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.26 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 54c | 1,334$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.25 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 49c | 640.41$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.36 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 42c | 412.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 46c | 402.41$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 49c | 396.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 41c | 313.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 269.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 47c | 267.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 73c | 260$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 53c | 208.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 49c | 204.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 76c | 166$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 45c | 87.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Yes | 49c | 87.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 47.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked No | 46c | 41.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 48c | 34.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 46c | 32.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…c8e1backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PlayTime to win 2-0?this page
- L1ga Team to win 2-0?No won
- L1ga Team vs PlayTime: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.