NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea5158d4cf2c357389a9f2836ed040e56a3e76d192df3b9fcbbd9616b41ee22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 2,666$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.73 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 45c | 2,279$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.65 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 43c | 1,076$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.31 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 57c | 974.2$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 928.24$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.35 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 17c | 526.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.94 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 52c | 497.19$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 458.81$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Under | 23c | 429.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.49 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 77c | 319.05$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 17c | 305.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.88 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 48c | 296.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 272.25$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…9d7cbacked Over | 49c | 265.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 57c | 259.27$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 17c | 256.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 58c | 253.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 248.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 53c | 244.81$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Over | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 202.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 52c | 186.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 161.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 71c | 149.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 44c | 139.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 74c | 121.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 59c | 119.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 50c | 114.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 39c | 101.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 79.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 19c | 79.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 47c | 64.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…d45cbacked Under | 23c | 61.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 18c | 58.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Over | 48c | 57.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Under | 52c | 56.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Over | 58c | 49.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 49c | 49.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 67c | 47.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 53c | 46.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under | 47c | 45.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 65c | 37.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 65c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 65c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 37.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 68c | 37.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 43c | 34.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 43c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 32.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 36c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 57c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Over | 50c | 29.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…ce1bbacked Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 25.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5this page
- Sabres vs. BruinsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.