NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb311c502a7566812b6eab53a25021fdc44b067ea1156152759633994473779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Bucks | 29c | 1,161$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.01 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Trail Blazers | 67c | 1,141$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.01 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 10c | 605.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…ea2ebacked Trail Blazers | 72c | 556.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 41c | 527.58$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 34c | 481.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.35 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5a…ff9fbacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 478.98$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 473.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.07 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Bucks | 27c | 396.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Bucks | 36c | 210.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Bucks | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Bucks | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Bucks | 27c | 162.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 38c | 151.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Trail Blazers | 65c | 144.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Bucks | 35c | 103.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bucks | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Trail Blazers | 64c | 89.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 84.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Trail Blazers | 64c | 79.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 30c | 72.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bucks | 37c | 60.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Bucks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9add…d1d5backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Bucks | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…3b51backed Bucks | 41c | 34.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bucks | 41c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Trail Blazers | 74c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 22.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Bucks vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.