NBA · resolved market
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b6feecaf615a66de56688b205814080ae6068e63755b001915b7acf12a835e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,790 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 33c | 1,800$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 67c | 995$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.35 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 65c | 485$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 72c | 87.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…2a32backed Yes | 28c | 78.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…77e7backed Yes | 28c | 72.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 50.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed No | 73c | 44.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Bucks vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.