CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef4391b0d37eb529db5d871ddb80b2d02451d2dac2f8436b45bd54ef21ca9cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05df…e268backed Astralis | 43c | 3,631$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.33 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Liquid | 56c | 2,625$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Liquid | 62c | 1,936$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.38 | 602 | 48.7%293 W · 309 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed Astralis | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 182 | 54.9%100 W · 82 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Liquid | 40c | 1,442$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.05 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Liquid | 60c | 1,255$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.9 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Astralis | 40c | 1,200$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.79 | 276 | 58%160 W · 116 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Astralis | 58c | 1,026$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.13 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid | 58c | 1,006$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.33 | 1,080 | 50.9%550 W · 530 L | +38.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Liquid | 62c | 900$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Astralis | 38c | 883.5$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.37 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Astralis | 38c | 830.26$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.76 | 461 | 43.4%200 W · 261 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked Astralis | 47c | 699.98$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Astralis | 59c | 649.44$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.84 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Liquid | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 256 | 47.7%122 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…cff9backed Astralis | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 364 | 50.3%183 W · 181 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked Liquid | 58c | 509.89$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 162 | 45.1%73 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Astralis | 42c | 385.37$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.66 | 480 | 40%192 W · 288 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Liquid | 58c | 318.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…2862backed Liquid | 62c | 308.73$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Astralis | 43c | 296.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Astralis | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Astralis | 40c | 247.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Astralis | 38c | 226.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed Astralis | 39c | 225.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 297 | 57.6%171 W · 126 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Liquid | 57c | 194.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 610 | 54.6%333 W · 277 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Liquid | 61c | 179$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Astralis | 38c | 169.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Liquid | 60c | 165.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Astralis | 38c | 165$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Liquid | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…6529backed Astralis | 38c | 131.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Astralis | 40c | 130.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 404 | 39.6%160 W · 244 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Astralis | 37c | 130$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1,037 | 39.8%413 W · 624 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Liquid | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Liquid | 53c | 118.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 1,768 | 59.2%1,047 W · 721 L | +105.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Astralis | 38c | 113.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Liquid | 50c | 109.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Astralis | 50c | 109.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Astralis | 37c | 108.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Astralis | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…5348backed Liquid | 59c | 104.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 724 | 53.7%389 W · 335 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Liquid | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 982 | 48.3%474 W · 508 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed Astralis | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59be…004abacked Liquid | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Astralis | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Astralis | 39c | 73.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Astralis | 44c | 68.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Liquid | 39c | 53.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Astralis | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Astralis | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed Astralis | 51c | 47.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Liquid | 53c | 45.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Astralis | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Astralis | 37c | 30.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Astralis | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,360 | 66.3%901 W · 459 L | +75.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Astralis | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Liquid | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ed12backed Astralis | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Astralis | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Liquid | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.