MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef8f7d54333414d6309586796cc22cf06cff2cda3e2654411e3008a7c6f9827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 6,627$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,837.87 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 4,121$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.33 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 2,081$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.31 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,224$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 1,057$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 759.25$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.25 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 458.16$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 402.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 383.3$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 320$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 310.7$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 269$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 235.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 25c | 157.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Detroit Tigers | 28c | 119.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 89.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 73.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 59.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers | 27c | 48.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 26.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.