MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53363734394afc79ccae4deb006e684c2036880295f6235f8d29e17ab6fb696f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 6,108$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 2,852$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 41c | 973$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 783.65$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 60c | 780$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 750.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 372.87$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 59c | 200.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 64c | 191.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 139.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 117$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 65.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Under | 61c | 57.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 52.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 54c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 59c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…245abacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 63c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.