Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef14e042e06ac66ca1244c9651261c24742c5adc8568db556a684a3c83c69278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 41c | 251.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 31c | 183$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 33c | 180.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 333 | 43.2%144 W · 189 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 160.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 19c | 155$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 335 | 41.8%140 W · 195 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed No | 34c | 147.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 41c | 138.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed No | 23c | 63.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 78c | 61.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 187 | 57.8%108 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 225 | 62.7%141 W · 84 L | +24.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 59.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 57.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 25c | 57.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 20c | 52.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…b108backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 63c | 49.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 48.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 48.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 41c | 44.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 440 | 19.1%84 W · 356 L | +23.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 29c | 42.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 39.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 28c | 38.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 80c | 35.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 354 | 70.6%250 W · 104 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…6215backed Yes | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 56c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 67c | 27.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 77c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…864ebacked Yes | 69c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.