TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,102 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa66d…6daabacked Cleveland Guardians71c1,699$1,200 inWon+$499.3221147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies31c922.85$284 inLost-$283.9812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians69c708$491 inWon+$217.382,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Philadelphia Phillies31c645.16$200 inLost-$20029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies28c368.71$103 inLost-$103.245,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Philadelphia Phillies31c300$93 inLost-$9311550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians69c290.85$201 inWon+$90.168,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies30c133.2$40 inLost-$39.962,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Cleveland Guardians75c127.44$96 inWon+$31.8643954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Philadelphia Phillies25c127.44$32 inLost-$31.8629331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Cleveland Guardians69c77.28$53 inWon+$23.9621550.2%108 W · 107 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c05…2f0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies29c68.86$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies30c50$15 inLost-$151,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Cleveland Guardians71c42.25$30 inWon+$12.2513672.1%98 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians80c30$24 inWon+$62,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7983…c138backed Cleveland Guardians70c14.38$10 inWon+$4.311994.7%18 W · 1 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.