MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71acb1175c94b1a7e39245eabda5950bd48bd4ac2b7db5654730f6c0b6d25d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 39c | 76,093$29,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,676.35 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 61c | 58,555$35,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,836.36 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 61c | 6,592$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.88 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 61c | 5,641$3,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 61c | 4,450$2,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 70c | 3,190$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.7 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 33c | 2,616$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 2,266$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 2,137$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,535$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 58c | 1,191$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.22 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 1,005$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 61c | 655.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.82 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 39c | 589.16$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 62c | 553.16$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 490.4$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 5c | 371$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 33c | 297.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 245.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 140.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 131$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…e0e2backed Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Under | 61c | 81.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Over | 40c | 51.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 42c | 44.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…138ebacked Over | 40c | 41.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 59c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Under | 62c | 31.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Over | 40c | 30.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 58c | 29.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d5…47abbacked Under | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Over | 41c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 65c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 77c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.