MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb206713211e6a9b4e3c24c7283ef5e4ece1c26a3a8a20786532021476650669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 23c | 6,942$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 4,975$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 45c | 1,784$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 78c | 1,783$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.93 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 1,601$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 58c | 1,044$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.89 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 920.4$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 478.45$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 277$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…1ba1backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 150.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 102.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 78c | 49.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over | 57c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Over | 63c | 46.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 38c | 40.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 78c | 38.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd558…a218backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 63c | 35.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 49c | 33.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 61c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 37c | 30.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 62c | 27.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Over | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Under | 59c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 79c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 79c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…6610backed Under | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 78c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…c138backed Under | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.