TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,477 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over37c6,297$2,346 inLost-$2,346.0110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c3,142$2,165 inWon+$977.2912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under80c1,983$1,582 inWon+$401.178,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under33c1,668$550 inWon+$1,117.573525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.8wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b4d…ad0fbacked Under35c1,143$400 inWon+$742.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over33c297.45$98 inLost-$98.1679255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b6…1ba1backed Under68c294.12$200 inWon+$94.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under69c268.11$185 inWon+$83.119,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under76c196.08$149 inWon+$46.678,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Under69c166.67$115 inWon+$51.673959%23 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under37c71.9$26 inWon+$45.56,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Over67c59.13$40 inLost-$39.6219155.5%106 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over31c43.48$13 inLost-$13.481,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over53c39$21 inLost-$20.6799744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Under71c31.86$23 inWon+$9.2410539%41 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under69c31.78$22 inWon+$9.8554152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c29.71$15 inWon+$14.4911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over44c24$11 inLost-$10.561,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under69c23.46$16 inWon+$7.2746952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Over59c19.29$11 inLost-$11.458342.2%35 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under69c17.86$12 inWon+$5.541,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under69c15.93$11 inWon+$4.9469447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Under72c14$10 inWon+$3.9229553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.