MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55251ea07e32e1885a0b9db4bcc8eeabcf76c91fd423af07b004b4111b5ea8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 2,078$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.07 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 1,846$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…5228backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 1,794$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 1,725$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 1,588$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 1,005$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.36 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 694.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.33 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 421.14$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…e0bcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 299$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 299$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 223.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 161.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 154.71$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 137.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 81.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 52.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.