MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e9590e668cc3e4d40763cc35dad12da0f705727b7708e1c0efcfad020e9e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 1,363$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,178$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 42c | 1,079$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.05 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 59c | 1,010$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 60c | 918.12$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.09 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…bfc2backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 41c | 462.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 60c | 381.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 40c | 373.66$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed No | 60c | 258.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 217.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 41c | 209.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…fa1ebacked No | 59c | 132.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 130.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 59.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 41c | 53.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 59c | 45.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…3612backed No | 58c | 36.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 41c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.