TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Cleveland Guardians59c95,000$56,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,95050153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Philadelphia Phillies41c91,184$37,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,385.2523948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians69c8,662$5,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.5710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies30c7,113$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.9312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians58c3,037$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.8511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Cleveland Guardians58c3,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0574…3ee0backed Philadelphia Phillies37c2,642$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.392817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies41c2,203$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.073,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies23c2,179$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.988,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Philadelphia Phillies41c2,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8301,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians58c1,598$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.042,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies42c1,253$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.314,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies42c872$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.242,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians57c683.33$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.831,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies31c657.79$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.778,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Philadelphia Phillies43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Philadelphia Phillies41c391$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3175049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Philadelphia Phillies40c375.42$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies43c354.27$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6411542.6%49 W · 66 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians58c260$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.248354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Philadelphia Phillies42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.819335.8%69 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians58c202.72$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1473748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Cleveland Guardians58c190$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.81,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Philadelphia Phillies32c171.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1831046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf48e…8fa3backed Philadelphia Phillies43c163.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians77c160$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Philadelphia Phillies43c141.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6112848.4%62 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Philadelphia Phillies22c127.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9943954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Cleveland Guardians78c127.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9979255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians70c124.86$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1402…eb6abacked Cleveland Guardians58c120.51$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Cleveland Guardians57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267b…a2a9backed Philadelphia Phillies42c115.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.031747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Philadelphia Phillies42c111.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475250%26 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e8…ba12backed Philadelphia Phillies43c107.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e6…cebabacked Cleveland Guardians58c105.43$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e54…fffdbacked Philadelphia Phillies43c104.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians58c99.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.191,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Philadelphia Phillies42c92.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3921554.9%118 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9783…dccabacked Cleveland Guardians79c92.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.387354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…57c6backed Philadelphia Phillies43c86.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b36…8ea5backed Cleveland Guardians58c85.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies46c85.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.262,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89f…0034backed Philadelphia Phillies43c80.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Cleveland Guardians76c71.01$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.047569.3%52 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Philadelphia Phillies43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030446.4%141 W · 163 L-25.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d94…bceebacked Cleveland Guardians58c65.88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Philadelphia Phillies31c64.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910539%41 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies35c59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.556,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians65c58.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.342,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians59c55.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8994648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb902…10c0backed Philadelphia Phillies38c52.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Philadelphia Phillies40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians62c48.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.386,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Philadelphia Phillies42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Philadelphia Phillies42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.916345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians80c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians58c37.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.933,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…9384backed Philadelphia Phillies42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398c…b9d8backed Philadelphia Phillies42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515138.4%58 W · 93 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Philadelphia Phillies43c34.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0414645.9%67 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc766…1533backed Philadelphia Phillies43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155646.4%26 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies42c33.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc50…7fdebacked Philadelphia Phillies42c31.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.276546.2%30 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Philadelphia Phillies46c31.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Philadelphia Phillies41c25.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.599543.2%41 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians58c21.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.212,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Cleveland Guardians57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.647589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf657…a354backed Cleveland Guardians60c17.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.163046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7983…c138backed Cleveland Guardians62c16.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.281994.7%18 W · 1 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.