NBA · resolved market
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef95ef714f4207854dda658da3f60ba753e8ed09ff2770943f333bea662b3982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 57c | 1,186$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.93 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed No | 43c | 657.43$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.85 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…1dd7backed No | 43c | 310.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 35c | 236.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…0db9backed No | 43c | 206.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 42c | 206.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…2b5dbacked Yes | 67c | 73.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes | 61c | 72.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Yes | 65c | 68.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…ac30backed No | 42c | 53.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…b0bfbacked Yes | 67c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 68c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Yes | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…7436backed Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Yes | 63c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Yes | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…171ebacked Yes | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…690fbacked Yes | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spurs vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.