NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78aa7aede8e5daa67bddeab080bad365058bebe3d475f4b9c2d70352b6c07e91

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,670 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb6f…2653backed Under	47c	6,000$2,820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,819.96	162	49.4%80 W · 82 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Over	50c	2,569$1,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284.49	492	44.3%218 W · 274 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over	78c	1,286$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.47	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	52c	1,243$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$596.58	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	53c	1,057$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.94	206	47.6%98 W · 108 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	53c	911.61$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.63	716	54.1%387 W · 329 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	50c	776.36$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.66	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	28c	752.97$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.57	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over	52c	747.08$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.6	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	739.39$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.67	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under	48c	708$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.84	568	43.8%249 W · 319 L	-25.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df0…7eb8backed Under	48c	706.42$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.08	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Over	52c	688.87$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.66	272	41.9%114 W · 158 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under	15c	614.6$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.38	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	50c	585$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.5	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over	52c	557.39$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.55	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	48c	429.3$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.34	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	52c	426.47$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.06	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Under	48c	403.67$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.76	145	49%71 W · 74 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over	51c	399.98$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.99	898	53.1%477 W · 421 L	+21.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Under	49c	397.96$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	241	51%123 W · 118 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over	53c	366.7$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.35	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	48c	347.34$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.37	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b1…4814backed Under	47c	302.09$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.98	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	46c	296.66$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.58	1,277	47.2%603 W · 674 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	53c	246.14$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.24	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over	53c	246.14$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.24	589	53.7%316 W · 273 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over	53c	246.14$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.24	298	49.3%147 W · 151 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	60c	224.51$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.29	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5545…9d86backed Under	50c	206.34$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.17	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	48c	201.2$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.47	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	26c	200.18$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	522	30.3%158 W · 364 L	+20.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	74c	200$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Under	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3918…b552backed Under	49c	193.88$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	53c	190.12$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.36	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Over	52c	186.77$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.65	136	55.9%76 W · 60 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Over	52c	186.77$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.65	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over	53c	183.36$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.18	350	52.6%184 W · 166 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over	51c	99.98$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.99	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x891f…f851backed Over	51c	97.06$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.56	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-6.5wins	-0.18per pick	50cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Over	53c	91.68$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.09	185	52.4%97 W · 88 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over	58c	80$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Under	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	229	42.8%98 W · 131 L	-9.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c2…54adbacked Over	51c	76.13$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.3	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+11%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under	48c	67.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8e…fe83backed Over	52c	63.41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	51c	59$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.91	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under	50c	58.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.09	86	57%49 W · 37 L	+5.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Under	49c	58.16$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	166	51.2%85 W · 81 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb409…03e9backed Over	52c	56.03$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.89	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b5…3f5ebacked Over	79c	55.93$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-5.5wins	-0.20per pick	61cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	52c	53.42$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.64	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under	48c	50.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	238	40.8%97 W · 141 L	-16.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Over	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d5…7620backed Under	50c	48.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Under	49c	48.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed Over	52c	46.69$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	96	46.9%45 W · 51 L	-6.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	51c	46.53$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.77	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	52c	44.06$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.15	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	53c	42.83$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under	36c	39.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	258	40.7%105 W · 153 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Under	49c	39.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	300	55.7%167 W · 133 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4884…f519backed Under	50c	38.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-6.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe53d…b31bbacked Under	50c	38.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed Over	64c	38.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.95	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f74…4adabacked Over	52c	37.35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.93	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4175…87a0backed Over	52c	34.07$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.35	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	47c	29.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dbf…a9ffbacked Over	51c	28.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…8cebbacked Over	52c	23.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.26	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Over	52c	22.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.96	533	49.3%263 W · 270 L	-28.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over	52c	22.78$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.93	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a2…36ddbacked Under	48c	20.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over	53c	20.43$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	319	53%169 W · 150 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Over	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	455	44.8%204 W · 251 L	+21.8wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1512…68f3backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over	74c	13.64$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.49	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Spurs won
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5No won
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Nuggets won
Spurs vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
Spurs vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Over won
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event