Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9612f704fc8b3fdc0d3535dd64dcbd0af1e55ec59f7e31b689a5624f1a17da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 821.42$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 619.84$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 499.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 478.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 61c | 392.14$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 77c | 390.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 251.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked No | 62c | 240.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 229.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 165.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 156.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 111.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 35c | 110.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 55c | 109.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 99.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 97.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 57c | 97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 40c | 88.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 77.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 70.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 68.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 66.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 62.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 60.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 53.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 46.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 28c | 44.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 42.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 38.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 37.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 32.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 30.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 30.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 56c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 57c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.