AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefcd53d5adcc855701ac4fe902cd5c4a71ff221ef7819836912c17947f68697e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 1,193$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 947.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 11c | 813.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 662.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 547.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 6c | 509.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 488.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 6c | 450.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 432.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 203.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 7c | 162.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 11c | 146$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 25c | 40.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…734cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…e371backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 49 | 95.9%47 W · 2 L | +13.3wins | +0.27per pick | 69cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…50aebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 79c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.