Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Fulham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf023fbfc0e4226225f8d79aa07125acb1e20cead7457e0e33e052cebdc5060e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes | 26c | 19,051$4,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.81 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 74c | 15,004$11,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,901 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 3,392$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.57 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 78c | 874.98$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.49 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 76c | 387.87$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 25c | 383.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 77c | 245$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed No | 76c | 202.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 21c | 186.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3a…544fbacked Yes | 24c | 184$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 159.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 74c | 155.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9674…b8cbbacked Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 76c | 131.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 130.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…7db0backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked No | 76c | 96.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…4979backed No | 75c | 73.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…37e6backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 64.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 23c | 54.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…49e5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…03ebbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Fulham end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03?Yes won
- Will Fulham win on 2025-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.