MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf024f3eafd4e22cb93afd6e06f067513af91a70a2f0c358293866091e5781d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 4,047$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.34 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 2,435$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.52 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 2,121$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,911$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,583$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.08 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 1,371$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.4 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 1,347$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.11 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 1,084$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 865.25$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.46 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 734.67$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.44 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 643.45$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 620.87$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 618.24$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.01 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 598.63$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.02 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 500.95$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 399.97$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 295.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 259.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 238.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 223.09$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 7c | 203.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 192.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 164.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 162.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 150.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 134.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 127.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 125.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 93.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 79.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 78.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 77.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 77.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 71.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 70.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…061cbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 53.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 49.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…74debacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 37.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 35.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 35.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 34.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 33.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 33.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 33.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 33.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 32.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1023…e18cbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.