Earnings · resolved market
Will Northrop Grumman (NOC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf087b321286ec43be60d9e2cee908bc39002360896a86122ccb20d86dbdeb69e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,699$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 78c | 1,480$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.24 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 76c | 892.57$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 79c | 805.14$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 22c | 764.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 12c | 658.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 649.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 13c | 554$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 19c | 456.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 79c | 378.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 80c | 345.57$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 10c | 315.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 333 | 24.9%83 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 75c | 301.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 78c | 291.18$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 80c | 251$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 249.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 190 | 41.6%79 W · 111 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 162$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 78c | 82.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…aa85backed No | 24c | 73.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 70c | 68.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 69c | 62.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…1134backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c4…1932backed Yes | 80c | 34.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…660cbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…96f2backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed Yes | 79c | 16.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.