NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0dfa41e7cc5ad3283b134768832933db7205dd1ad477d080a03085588d2230b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 59c | 7,536$4,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.28 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors | 51c | 5,999$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.73 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Hornets | 50c | 5,612$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.67 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 47c | 5,150$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.79 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Raptors | 52c | 4,167$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…b5c5backed Hornets | 49c | 3,639$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.78 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 50c | 3,302$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 29c | 2,002$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.61 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Hornets | 48c | 1,238$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.76 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 50c | 1,227$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 51c | 488.59$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Hornets | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Raptors | 44c | 191.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 40c | 131.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Raptors | 53c | 98.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 48c | 90.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Hornets | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Hornets | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 48c | 75.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Hornets | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Raptors | 53c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Hornets | 47c | 49.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Hornets | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Raptors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hornets | 48c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Hornets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Hornets | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…dbcabacked Hornets | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hornets | 60c | 27.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Raptors | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Raptors | 54c | 18.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Raptors vs. HornetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.