NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912bd594c20ddcc0a7fd7ef5feabec87acca568f6a2e86f88a847988f6d79e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Raptors | 47c | 45,504$21,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,315.16 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 53c | 12,630$6,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,935.27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 54c | 10,680$5,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 53c | 9,940$5,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 54c | 4,000$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Hornets | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Hornets | 53c | 3,629$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.86 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Raptors | 46c | 3,163$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.25 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Hornets | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hornets | 53c | 1,981$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.07 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Raptors | 46c | 1,849$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 56c | 1,582$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets | 53c | 1,110$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.62 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Raptors | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Raptors | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 55c | 890$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Hornets | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Hornets | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hornets | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Hornets | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 53c | 359.95$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Raptors | 45c | 346.67$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Raptors | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Raptors | 44c | 282.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 91 | 67%61 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hornets | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Hornets | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Hornets | 54c | 210.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Raptors | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Raptors | 46c | 134.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Hornets | 57c | 128$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Hornets | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Hornets | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Hornets | 55c | 96.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 49c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hornets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Hornets | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Hornets | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Raptors | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Raptors | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Raptors | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Raptors | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…6e0dbacked Hornets | 54c | 76.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Hornets | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Hornets | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…a7c4backed Hornets | 56c | 71.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Hornets | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Hornets | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Raptors | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Raptors | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Raptors | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Hornets | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Hornets | 56c | 56.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Raptors | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Raptors | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Raptors | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Hornets | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 268 | 42.9%115 W · 153 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Raptors | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Raptors | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Hornets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hornets | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…82fcbacked Hornets | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Raptors | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Raptors | 44c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Hornets | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Raptors | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Raptors | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Raptors | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Raptors | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…782bbacked Raptors | 47c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -8.8wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Raptors | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Hornets | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Raptors | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Raptors | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Raptors | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Raptors | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…0969backed Hornets | 56c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Raptors vs. HornetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.